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Impact of the Indian Election on the Stock Market Over the years

Stock Market, Elections, History, Impact

The Indian election season is a whirlwind of political rallies, passionate debates, and ultimately, a verdict from the people. But beyond the political arena, elections also significantly impact the Indian stock market. This blog explores this fascinating dynamic, empowering you to understand how elections can influence your investment decisions and to navigate the pre-election and post-election market landscape with greater understanding.

Understanding the Election-Market Connection

The relationship between the Indian elections and the stock market is a complex one, marked by both opportunities and uncertainties. Here's a glimpse into the historical trend:

Increased Volatility

Pre-Election Jitters: As elections approach, investors might become cautious, leading to increased volatility in the market. This is because the outcome of the election can significantly impact economic policies, regulations, and investor sentiment.

Post-Election Reactions: The stock market often reacts positively to a stable government with a clear economic agenda. Conversely, a fractured mandate or unexpected results can lead to short-term market dips.

Impact on Specific Sectors

  • Infrastructure and Banking: Stable governments with a focus on infrastructure development can positively impact these sectors.
  • Consumer Goods and Retail: Increased disposable income due to pro-growth policies can benefit these sectors.
  • Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Policy changes related to healthcare initiatives can influence these sectors.

Historical Examples of Election Impact

Let's explore some historical examples to understand how elections have influenced the Indian stock market:


Election Outcome

Market Impact



Narendra Modi (BJP) re-elected for a third term

The BSE Sensex plummeted by as much as 6,234.35 points, equivalent to an 8.1% decline, hitting an intra-day low of 70,234.43. Simultaneously, the broader Nifty experienced a similar fate, crashing by 1,982.45 points, or 8.5%, to reach 21,281.45.

As this is a recent event, the long-term impact on the market is yet to be determined. However, investor sentiment will likely depend on the government's economic policies and their effectiveness.


Narendra Modi (BJP) re-elected with a strong majority

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.7% to 11,657.05. It hit an intraday high of 12,041.15, and a low of 11,614.5.

While the BJP's win was expected, some concerns about the future economic agenda led to initial market volatility. However, the market recovered as investors welcomed the continuation of a stable government.


Narendra Modi (BJP) wins with a strong majority

Nifty advanced 1.12% to close at 7,203. Nifty's intraday high was 7,563.50, and its low was 7,130.65.

The landslide victory of Narendra Modi, seen as a pro-business leader, fueled investor optimism about economic reforms. 


UPA re-elected with Manmohan Singh

On this election results day, the markets were closed, since it was a Saturday. However, on the following Monday, May 18, 2009, the Nifty surged by 17.74 percent at 4,323.15.

The re-election of the UPA government, providing continuity, was welcomed by investors and led to a rise in stock prices.


United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Manmohan Singh

On this election results day, the Nifty rose 0.37% at 1,717.50.

The unexpected win of the UPA surprised markets, leading to a short-term decline. However, the new government's focus on social welfare programs and infrastructure development, coupled with a strong global economy, led to a long-lasting bull run.


National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee wins with a strong majority

Nifty jumped 1% to 1,392.70.

The decisive victory of the NDA, providing a stable government, boosted investor sentiment and led to a rise in stock prices.


Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led government under /Atal Bihari Vajpayee

Initial volatility followed by a rally

The BJP's victory surprised many, initially leading to some market volatility. However, the government's focus on fiscal stability and economic reforms restored investor confidence, resulting in a market rally.


United Front coalition government led by H.D. Deve Gowda

Market volatility

The uncertainty surrounding the new coalition government's economic policies and its ability to implement reforms led to fluctuations in the stock market.


P.V. Narasimha Rao (Congress) wins with economic reforms agenda

Significant market upswing

Sensex increased by around 36% in six months

The focus on economic liberalisation, including deregulation and privatisation, boosted investor confidence, leading to a surge in stock prices.


Key Factors Influencing Election Impact

Party Manifesto

The economic policies and reforms outlined by contesting parties can significantly impact investor sentiment.

Political Stability

A strong, stable government is usually seen as positive for the market.

Market Expectations: Pre-election expectations regarding the winning party and its policies can lead to anticipation or anxiety.

Global Market Conditions

The overall health of the global economy can influence the Indian market's reaction to elections.

Understanding the Why Behind the Impact

Several factors explain the link between elections and the stock market:

Policy Changes 

The winning party's economic policies can influence corporate profitability, impacting stock prices.

Investor Sentiment

Market sentiment is influenced by perceptions of stability, economic growth, and business environment under the new government.

Foreign Investments 

The stability and clarity of the new government's agenda can attract or deter foreign investments, impacting market liquidity.

What Investors Should Consider

Long-Term Focus 

While elections can cause short-term volatility, focus on your long-term investment goals and avoid impulsive decisions based solely on election outcomes.

Consider Rebalancing

If your portfolio becomes imbalanced due to election-related movements, consider rebalancing to maintain your desired risk profile.

Fundamental Analysis 

Don't rely solely on election news. Conduct a thorough fundamental analysis of companies before making investment decisions.

Remember: Elections are just one factor influencing the stock market. A well-rounded investment strategy considers economic fundamentals, corporate performance, and global market trends.

Analysing Specific Sectors

While a general election can impact the overall market, specific sectors might react more strongly based on party policies:


Potential Impact of Election



Increased focus on infrastructure development can benefit related stocks.

A party with a strong focus on infrastructure projects could boost the stocks of construction companies and cement manufacturers.

Banking & Finance

Banking reforms or changes in loan regulations can influence the sector.

A party promising reforms to ease access to credit could positively impact banking stocks.

Consumer Staples

Consumer spending might be affected by government policies and economic growth.

If an election outcome leads to increased disposable income, FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) stocks might benefit.


Indian elections are a significant event not only for the nation but also for the stock market. By understanding the historical trends, key factors, and potential sector-specific impacts, you can navigate the pre-election and post-election market environment with greater confidence. Remember, knowledge empowers informed investment decisions, allowing you to participate in the exciting journey of the Indian stock market.


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